Platinum Market Set For First Annual Surplus Since 2022.
✧ GENERATE BRIEFING +
The global platinum market is on track to post its first annual surplus since 2022, with the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) revising its 2026 outlook to a modest 265,000 troy ounce surplus. This represents a sharp turnaround from its previous forecast of a 297,000-ounce deficit, driven largely by heavy liquidation and ETF outflows during the first half of the year. Spot platinum has traded around $1,840 per troy ounce, correcting approximately 10% year-to-date following an extraordinary rally in 2025 that peaked at an all-time high of $2,919 in January. Despite the shift toward a headline surplus, structural market fundamentals remain constrained. Following three consecutive years of heavy deficits, above-ground vaulted inventories have dwindled to roughly 14 weeks of global demand, leaving the market vulnerable to sudden supply shocks. While second-quarter demand fell 16% year-on-year to 1.7 million ounces due to soft Chinese jewelry consumption and reduced investment activity, industrial and technology applications—including emerging uses in advanced AI infrastructure and electronics—continue to provide long-term demand support.
The global platinum market is expected to move into surplus this year for the first time since 2022, as weaker investment flows and softer jewellery demand offset continued constraints on above-ground supplies, according to the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC).
The WPIC has revised its 2026 outlook to a surplus of 265,000 troy ounces, reversing its previous forecast of a 297,000-ounce deficit issued three months earlier.
The main shift has come from heavy selling of platinum-backed exchange-traded funds during the first half of the year. The market surplus reached 548,000 ounces in the first half, although WPIC research head Edward Sterck said conditions returned to deficit in the second half as ETF selling eased and some buying resumed.
Platinum prices have also come under pressure. Spot platinum was around $1,840 per troy ounce, down about 10% so far this year, after surging 127% in 2025 and reaching a record $2,919 an ounce in January. Geopolitical tensions and expectations of higher interest rates have weighed on precious metals.
Demand weakened sharply in the second quarter, falling 16% year-on-year to 1.7 million ounces. Net investment demand recorded an outflow of 121,000 ounces, while jewellery demand dropped 32%, largely because of higher prices and weaker Chinese demand. Automotive demand also declined 6%.
On the supply side, total platinum supply increased 1% year-on-year to 1.9 million ounces, supported by a 9% rise in recycling. The additional recycled metal has contributed to the market moving from a projected deficit towards a modest surplus.
Despite the surplus forecast, the WPIC said the platinum market remains vulnerable because readily available above-ground stocks have been depleted by three consecutive years of deficits. Current unallocated vaulted inventories are estimated at only around 14 weeks of demand, limiting the market’s ability to absorb another major supply disruption.
