Pakistan Revises FY2026 GDP Growth To 3.65%, Economy Valued At Rs126.4tr
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✧ GENERATE BRIEFING
Following the 118th meeting of the National Accounts Committee (NAC), the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) officially revised Pakistan’s real GDP growth for fiscal year 2025–26 (FY26) down to 3.65%, compared to the provisional estimate of 3.70%. Nominal GDP expanded to Rs126.4 trillion ($450.4 billion) at current market prices, up from Rs114.9 trillion ($408.7 billion) in FY25, while per capita income reached Rs531,897 ($1,896). Key sectoral revisions, quarterly trajectories, and structural growth dynamics include: Sectoral Breakdown: Agriculture expanded by 3.50% (up from 2.89% on stronger crop yields), Industry grew by 3.34% (down from 3.51% due to Large-Scale Manufacturing moderating to 5.01%), and Services grew by 3.81% (down from 4.09%), anchored by 9.53% growth in ICT. Quarterly Divergence: Economic momentum peaked in Q3 FY26 at 4.42% before decelerating sharply to 2.00% in Q4 FY26 due to a 4.70% contraction in industrial output during the final quarter.
Pakistan’s economy expanded by 3.65% in fiscal year 2025-26, with its total size reaching $450.4 billion, according to revised estimates released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) following the 118th meeting of the National Accounts Committee (NAC).
The revised growth rate is slightly below the previously estimated 3.70%, indicating a modest slowdown from earlier projections. At current prices, the economy was valued at Rs126.4 trillion, compared with Rs114.9 trillion, or $408.7 billion, in the preceding fiscal year.
Sectoral Revisions Across Agriculture, Industry, and Services
Sectoral figures showed agriculture growing by 3.50%, industry by 3.34% and services by 3.81% during FY2026. The revisions reflect changes in production estimates and updated economic indicators across the three major sectors.
Agricultural growth improved from an earlier estimate of 2.89%, supported by stronger performance in important crops. Growth in important crops was revised upward from 0.65% to 1.59%, while other crops expanded by 4.28%, driven by increased production of pulses, fruits, tomatoes, oilseeds and green fodder. Livestock growth, however, edged down slightly to 3.71%.
Industrial growth was revised downward from 3.51% to 3.34%. Mining and quarrying improved to 1.52%, supported by higher output of gas, crude oil and coal. Meanwhile, large-scale manufacturing growth was revised from 6.11% to 5.01%, indicating weaker expansion than previously estimated.
The services sector grew by 3.81%, compared with the earlier estimate of 4.09%. Information and communication recorded stronger growth of 9.53%, while finance and insurance expanded by 4.23%. Wholesale and retail trade growth, however, slowed to 2.37%, reflecting weaker activity associated with manufacturing and imports.
Quarterly Trajectory and Q4 Industrial Contraction
Quarterly figures showed GDP growth of 3.89% in the first quarter, 4.31% in the second and 4.42% in the third quarter. However, growth slowed sharply to 2.0% in the fourth quarter, with industry contracting by 4.70%, while agriculture expanded by 3.71% and services grew by 3.62%.
Per capita income for FY2026 was estimated at Rs531,897, equivalent to $1,896. The latest figures provide an updated picture of Pakistan’s economic performance, showing improved agricultural output and gains in information and communication alongside weaker manufacturing growth and a slowdown in the final quarter.
