World Bank: 61% Of Pakistan’s Service-Sector Workers Face High AI Exposure
Listen3 min
Read aloud by your device’s built-in synthetic voice, not a recording. Needs a browser that can read aloud.
✧ GENERATE BRIEFING
The World Bank, in its latest Pakistan Development Update published on Thursday, October 22, 2026, revealed that 61% of Pakistan’s service-sector workforce is employed in occupations with above-median exposure to Artificial Intelligence (AI). The findings underscore a major structural disparity across economic sectors, contrasting service-sector vulnerability with minimal physical-labor exposure in agriculture and heavy manufacturing. Key labor analytics, sector breakdowns, and employment implications include:Sectoral Exposure Disparity: While 61% of service-sector workers face high exposure, the figure drops to 7% in manufacturing, 5% in other industrial sectors, and less than 1% in agriculture. High-exposure service subsectors (>80% of staff) include wholesale & retail trade, finance & insurance, real estate, and education. Complementarity vs. Substitution: The World Bank classifies 18% of Pakistan's total employed workforce in high-exposure jobs with strong human-AI complementarity (where AI acts as a productivity enhancer, e.g., education and real estate).
Artificial intelligence (AI) could reshape Pakistan’s labour market, with service-sector employment facing the greatest exposure to the technology, according to a World Bank assessment published in the latest Pakistan Development Update on October 22, 2026.
The assessment found that 61% of service-sector workers in Pakistan were employed in occupations with above-median exposure to AI in 2024. By comparison, the share stood at 7% in manufacturing, 5% in other industrial sectors and less than 1% in agriculture, highlighting significant differences in how the technology could affect the country’s workforce.
Sectoral Disparity and High-Exposure Subsectors
Wholesale and retail trade, financial and insurance services, real estate and education were among the service-sector subsectors where more than 80% of workers were employed in highly AI-exposed occupations.
The findings indicate that activities involving information processing, administrative work and other knowledge-intensive tasks could undergo substantial changes as businesses adopt AI tools. However, the World Bank cautioned that exposure does not necessarily translate into job losses, as AI can also assist employees and improve productivity.
| Sector / Indicator | Share of Workers in Above-Median AI Exposure |
| Services Sector (Overall) | 61% |
| Manufacturing | 7% |
| Other Industrial Sectors | 5% |
| Agriculture | <1% |
| High Complementarity Roles (National) | 18% |
| High Substitution Risk Roles (National) | 8% |
Complementarity vs. Substitution Dynamics
The report distinguishes between jobs where AI can complement human capabilities and those where the technology could substitute for workers. In 2024, approximately 18% of employed workers in Pakistan were in occupations combining high AI exposure with strong potential for human-AI complementarity. Meanwhile, 8% worked in highly exposed occupations with low complementarity.
Real estate and education were identified as sectors where AI could primarily support employees’ work, creating opportunities for productivity improvements. Wholesale and retail trade presents a more complex picture because of its substantial employment base and the potential for AI to both assist and replace certain tasks.
International Benchmarks and Strategic Workforce Policy
The World Bank highlighted Pakistan’s average occupational AI exposure score, which stood 0.48 standard deviations below the median occupation in 2024. The country’s overall exposure was broadly comparable with the average across emerging markets and developing economies.
The report’s findings suggest that the effects of AI adoption will depend on the types of tasks performed, the extent to which businesses deploy the technology and workers’ ability to adapt their skills. The number of people employed in each affected sector will also influence the overall economic impact.
For Pakistan, the strategic challenge will be to capture potential productivity gains while preparing workers for changes in job requirements. Improving skills and enabling workers to use AI effectively could help businesses benefit from the technology without treating automation as an inevitable source of widespread unemployment.
