Pakistan On Track To Clear Upcoming IMF Review, AHL Says.
✧ GENERATE BRIEFING +
Pakistan is well-positioned to successfully clear nearly all seven quantitative performance criteria (QPCs) under its ongoing International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, according to a comprehensive assessment by brokerage house Arif Habib Limited (AHL). Based on publicly available data ahead of the upcoming review—with just one QPC-related data point remaining undisclosed—AHL reports that meeting these essential targets significantly minimizes the risk of waivers or major structural setbacks. An IMF staff mission is scheduled to visit Pakistan next month to conduct the fourth review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) alongside the second review of the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). Previous reviews successfully unlocked approximately $1.1 billion under the EFF and $220 million under the RSF, bringing total cumulative disbursements to around $4.8 billion. This upcoming evaluation marks the first comprehensive IMF assessment following recent sovereign credit-rating upgrades by Moody's and S&P, as well as Pakistan's debut Panda Bond issuance, making a seamless review vital for sustaining investor confidence.
Pakistan is likely to meet nearly all seven quantitative performance criteria (QPCs) under its ongoing International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, according to brokerage house Arif Habib Limited (AHL).
AHL said the assessment is based on publicly available data ahead of the IMF’s upcoming review, with only one QPC-related data point yet to be disclosed.
Meeting the key targets could pave the way for a smooth IMF review with limited risk of waivers or major setbacks, the brokerage said.
The IMF staff mission is scheduled to visit Pakistan next month for the fourth review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the second review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).
The previous review was completed in May, resulting in the release of around $1.1 billion under the EFF and $220 million under the RSF. Cumulative disbursements under the two programmes have reached approximately $4.8 billion.
AHL said the upcoming review will be important not only for potential financing but also for demonstrating Pakistan’s consistent implementation of economic reforms.
The brokerage noted that the review will be the first full IMF assessment following recent Moody’s and S&P credit-rating upgrades and Pakistan’s debut Panda Bond, making a successful review important for maintaining investor confidence.
However, Pakistan still faces challenges on the fiscal side. The Federal Board of Revenue missed its FY2026 tax collection target by Rs1.1 trillion, against the original target of Rs14.1 trillion. AHL warned that another significant shortfall could put pressure on the government’s FY2027 fiscal plans.
AHL forecasts Pakistan’s fiscal deficit could widen to 3.9% of GDP in FY2027, from 2.6% in FY2026, while the primary surplus is expected to remain positive at 2% of GDP.
If the upcoming IMF review is completed successfully, Pakistan could gain access to around $1 billion under the EFF and $200 million under the RSF, subject to approval by the IMF Executive Board.
