Pakistan, China And India LNG Demand Expected To Recover After War.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand in Pakistan, China and India is expected to recover from multi-year lows once the Middle East supply crisis eases and additional supplies enter the market, industry executives said.

The ongoing US-Iran conflict has disrupted LNG shipments from major exporters, particularly Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Much of their LNG traditionally passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial energy corridor that previously carried around one-fifth of global LNG supplies.

The disruption has removed approximately 36 million tonnes of LNG from the global market so far this year, according to Shell’s President for Integrated Gas, Cederic Cremers. The supply shock has pushed Asian spot LNG prices close to $30 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), compared with around $10 before the conflict.

The sharp increase in prices has reduced demand across price-sensitive Asian markets. GAIL Chairman Deepak Gupta said Indian industries were switching to alternative fuels where imported gas had become economically unviable.

In China, PetroChina International CEO Luo Yizhou said LNG demand from gas-fired power plants could recover once prices return to a more normal range of $7–$9 per MMBtu. He said high prices had temporarily suppressed consumption but would not permanently eliminate demand.

Pakistan LNG CEO Masood Nabi also expects demand to increase if prices become affordable and additional LNG volumes become available. Although the expansion of solar power has helped Pakistan manage electricity shortages, gas remains important for households and several industrial sectors.

GAIL and PetroChina have deployed trading teams to secure alternative cargoes to replace disrupted Qatari and Emirati supplies. India’s Petronet LNG, meanwhile, said buyers were seeking greater price stability, with affordability remaining a key factor in purchasing decisions.

Industry executives expect new LNG capacity to ease market pressure over the medium term. GAIL’s Gupta estimated that between 150 million and 200 million tonnes of additional LNG capacity could become available over the next four to five years, potentially helping prices stabilise and demand recover.

ExxonMobil also maintained a positive long-term outlook for LNG consumption, particularly in China, where extensive import infrastructure and rising electricity demand could support future growth. However, the pace of recovery will depend on the restoration of Middle East supplies, shipping security and the affordability of alternative LNG cargoes.