US Soybean Harvest Pressures Prices Despite Fresh Chinese Buying
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✧ GENERATE BRIEFING
Soybean futures traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) experienced downward pressure on Thursday, October 15, 2026, as accelerated harvest progress and expanding physical supply across the U.S. Midwest offset renewed export bookings from China. The benchmark most-active contract slipped 0.4% to $12.71¾ per bushel, touching seven-week lows amid forecasts of a record domestic yield. Key trade flows, crop progress metrics, and market fundamentals include:U.S. Harvest Progress: The USDA Crop Progress report confirmed that 46% of the U.S. soybean crop was harvested as of Sunday, October 11, surging by 21 percentage points in a single week due to favorable, dry Midwest weather. While this exceeded analyst expectations of 44%, it remains slightly behind the five-year average of 50%. Domestic U.S. Crush Slowdown: U.S. domestic processing demand signaled mild softening, with the September NOPA crush figure coming in at a 13-month low of 196.3 million bushels.
Soybean futures were heading for a weekly decline as expanding US harvest supplies outweighed renewed purchases by China, the world’s largest soybean importer, keeping pressure on prices in the Chicago futures market.
The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) fell 0.4% to $12.71¾ per bushel on Thursday. Although fresh Chinese buying helped limit losses, traders remained focused on the arrival of the new US crop and expectations of record production.
Accelerated Harvest Pace Across the Midwest
Favourable, mostly dry weather across the US Midwest allowed farmers to accelerate harvesting after earlier rain delays. The US Department of Agriculture reported that 46% of the soybean crop had been harvested by Sunday, exceeding the 44% average forecast by analysts surveyed by Reuters.
Despite surging 21 percentage points in a single week, national harvest progress remains slightly behind the five-year historical average of 50%. Crop condition ratings remained unchanged, with 57% rated in good-to-excellent condition.
Chinese Purchases Resume Following Summit
China provided some support to the market after state-owned trading companies purchased eight to 10 cargoes of US soybeans, with shipments scheduled from December onwards. Each cargo is estimated to carry around 65,000 metric tonnes, marking the first purchases of this kind since the September summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
The US Department of Agriculture also confirmed private sales of 470,000 metric tonnes of soybeans to China. However, the renewed buying has not been sufficient to offset the pressure from rising US supplies and concerns about the strength of Chinese demand.
Domestic Crush Margins and Demand Outlook
China’s soybean imports fell 7.7% year-on-year in September to 11.88 million tonnes, reflecting softer demand. The country’s crushing industry is also dealing with excess capacity, while weak processing margins and concerns about animal-feed consumption could limit further purchases.
In the U.S., domestic processing figures also reflected mild deceleration, with the September crush falling to a 13-month low of 196.3 million bushels. Market attention is now shifting towards the pace of US export shipments, domestic soybean-crushing margins and demand from China’s livestock sector to determine if export momentum can absorb seasonal harvest volume.
Agriculture
Agriculture
Agriculture