Pakistan Inflation May Ease To 10% In September Amid High Energy Costs.
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✧ GENERATE BRIEFING
Pakistan's September inflation is expected to ease to around 10%, though rising electricity and fuel costs continue to pressure the SBP's monetary policy. Pakistan’s headline consumer inflation is projected to ease to between 9.9% and 10.5% year-on-year for September 2026, down from 11.15% in August, according to estimates released by leading brokerage houses including Topline Securities, Ismail Iqbal Securities, and Growth Securities.While food price pressures have begun to moderate, sticky structural energy costs continue to drive monthly momentum. Brokerage reports indicate that month-on-month electricity charges rose by 9.58%, motor fuels increased by 6.5%, and LPG advanced by 2.61%. This persistent energy inflation complicates the State Bank of Pakistan's (SBP) monetary policy stance following its decision to hold the policy rate at 11.5%, as broader risks from global commodity volatility, tariff adjustments, and potential geopolitical supply risks in the Middle East keep domestic price trajectories under close watch.
Pakistan’s consumer inflation is expected to ease to around 10% in September 2026 from 11.15% in August, but higher fuel and electricity costs are likely to keep price pressures elevated and complicate the State Bank of Pakistan’s monetary policy outlook.
Brokerage houses have placed their September inflation forecasts between 9.9% and 10.5% year-on-year, compared with 11.15% in August and 5.61% in September 2025. The estimates include projections from Topline Securities, Ismail Iqbal Securities, Abbasi and Company and Growth Securities.
Topline Securities expects inflation at around 10.25–10.3% YoY and 1.3% month-on-month, with fuel prices estimated to have increased 6.5% during the month. Electricity charges rose 9.58% month-on-month, while LPG prices increased 2.61%, according to the brokerage.
Ismail Iqbal Securities has projected September inflation at 10.5% YoY and 1.4% MoM, saying energy costs are expected to account for a larger share of the monthly increase as food pressures ease. Electricity and motor-fuel prices are key contributors to the forecast.
Food prices, however, remain a source of pressure. Onion prices increased sharply during the month, while higher prices of wheat flour, meat, rice, fresh milk, cooking oil and vegetable ghee are expected to support the food index, according to brokerage estimates.
Growth Securities has the lowest forecast at 9.9% YoY and 0.8% MoM. It expects lower food prices to partly offset the impact of higher fuel costs and projects inflation to remain in the 9–10% range through March 2027 if average fuel prices stay around Rs390–400 per litre.
The inflation outlook has implications for monetary policy. The SBP kept its policy rate unchanged at 11.5% on September 14, while noting increased risks from global commodity prices, electricity and gas tariff adjustments, supply disruptions and food prices.
The energy outlook remains particularly important because disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb have increased fuel-price risks. At the same time, recent US-Iran discussions over reopening the Strait of Hormuz could influence global energy prices if they lead to a sustained improvement in shipping conditions.
